Government void risks further delays

In the News | 08-10-2012

The rejection of two cabinets proposed by Mustafa Abu Shagour augurs poorly for any quick progress on major economic initiatives or infrastructure projects.

Yesterday's no-confidence vote in the General National Congress (GNC) saw Abu Shagour removed as prime minister less than three weeks after the same assembly elected him through a run-off poll against Mahmoud Jibril.

Abu Shagour's first cabinet, put forward on 4 October, encountered hostile opposition from assembly members and prompted a protest by demonstrators from the town of Zawiya, who broke into the assembly hall at the Rixos Hotel in Tripoli. The line-up contained some 28 ministers, many of whom were apparently unknown even to GNC members.

Three days later Abu Shagour then presented a second, 'emergency cabinet', containing only 10 names. Despite a speech from the prime minister urging the assembly to endorse the new government, the GNC then passed its motion of no-confidence by 125 votes to 44, with a number of abstentions.

Agreeing on cabinet roles - even temporary ones that will theoretically only last some 12-18 months before another round of elections - was never going to be an easy task. It must balance powerful political and regional interests, and is made harder by the fragmented nature of the GNC, with no dominant party or bloc able to push through votes. Yesterday's no-confidence vote was held in secret, meaning it is impossible to tell how its members aligned. 

While setbacks to Libya's political transition are to be expected, the danger is of a prolonged delay at precisely the time that Libya needs decisive action on everything from security to infrastructure. It is not clear when the GNC will next vote on a new prime minister, and in the meantime the interim government under Abdurrahim al-Keib (in which Abu Shagour serves as deputy prime minister) will apparently remain in place.

A key question for businesses is to what extent the thousands of government projects - ranging from housing to roads, hospitals to airports - are linked to the appointment of ministers. 

If they can be separated from what may be an increasingly tortuous political process, then things may be allowed to move ahead independently of political gridlock. If they are reliant on top-down government decisions, then the pace of change may remain rather glacial in the short-term.

Written by: Libya Report